How Will Dobbs Affect the Midterms?
It's our civil rights, stupid
The US Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health taking away the right to obtain an abortion has changed the political landscape. If Democrats can make the case that abortion rights are at stake in the upcoming midterm elections, they have a chance to hold on to the House of Representatives in November.
Last week, Kansas voters rejected by an 18 point margin an amendment that would have removed any implied protection of the right to obtain an abortion from the state constitution. The amendment would have explicitly eliminated the Kansas Supreme Court’s grounds for finding in 2019 that the state constitution protects “a woman's right to make decisions about her body”. The amendment was written in a way that made it seem as if it would protect—rather than remove protection for—the right to obtain an abortion, which suggests its authors knew it wouldn’t win if voters understood what it said. The amendment’s sponsors also seem to have calculated it was more likely to pass if they scheduled the vote for a primary election when turnout would typically be low. But Kansans turned out for the primary in unusually large numbers to vote the amendment down by a 19 point margin—in a state that Donald won two years ago by almost 15 points.
Legal abortion is popular, even in red states. A clear majority of Americans believe women should have the right to choose for themselves whether to carry a pregnancy to term. Polls show that majorities oppose the Supreme Court’s ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health that the US Constitution does not—in spite of nearly 50 years of precedent—protect a right to obtain an abortion. Majorities also believe Dobbs was decided on political rather than legal grounds and worry that Dobbs undermines precedents granting the rights to use contraception, engage in same-sex relationships, and marry partners of the same sex.
Taking away the right to obtain an abortion is not good electoral politics. The question is just how much a price Republicans will pay for having accomplished something most Americans didn’t want done. After years of fighting to restrict abortion rights, Republican politicians won’t be able to convince voters angry at the Dobbs decision that Republicans will protect access to abortion in the future. Whether anger at the Dobbs decision will also translate into support specifically for Democrats—who failed to protect Roe v. Wade and whose support for abortion rights has sometimes been lukewarm—will probably depend on the extent to which they can credibly promise that if they’re elected they will protect access to abortions.
In June, I wrote that the result of the November midterms would likely be a Republican wave. I did write that if the Supreme Court did in fact overturn Roe, it would increase turnout for Democrats “since voters tend to be more motivated when they’re angry than when they’re satisfied.” But the truth was I didn’t think the backlash to the Dobbs decision would be strong enough to significantly improve the Democrats’ chance of holding onto the House of Representatives. In hindsight, I think I read too much into the tepid outrage that followed the leaked draft of the Dobbs decision in May, and underestimated the outpouring of anger that would result once Roe was actually overturned and new abortion restrictions began to be enforced.
Democrats still have stiff headwinds to overcome. The President’s party almost always loses a substantial number of House seats in midterm elections. Inflation—the top issue for most voters—is higher than it has been for forty years. Because of the way House districts are drawn, Democrats need to win the popular vote by something like 2.5 points to retain their majority in the House.
Nevertheless, the political environment has shifted in the Democrats’ favor enough to improve their chances. The Republican lead in the generic congressional ballot has vanished since the Dobbs decision was announced in June. Comparing polls from the same pollsters suggests there may have been a 2.5 point swing in the Democrats’ direction since the decision. The overperformance of the Democratic candidates in recent special elections in Nebraska and Minnesota is consistent with a substantial swing in the Democrats’ favor. And if voters believe abortion is on the ballot, there may be enough of a surge in Democratic turnout to compensate for the lack of enthusiasm you would normally expect them to show this year.
It’s not just the Dobbs decision. Democratic enthusiasm may also be buoyed by the passage of landmark legislation addressing climate change and gun violence. Republicans meanwhile have somehow been in the news for blocking a law that increases benefits to veterans who’ve been exposed to burn pits and for defeating a provision in the Inflation Recovery Act that would have capped insulin prices.
As Josh Marshall argues, Democrats’ chance of actually holding onto the House probably depends on the extent to which the election is about reproductive rights. Democrats’ position on reproductive rights is simply much more popular than the Republicans’ position. The results of the referendum in Kansas reflect the fact that many Republican voters support the right to obtain an abortion. But those voters will probably vote for a Republican in the fall unless abortion rights clearly depend on voting for a Democrat. Democrats will have to make the election a referendum on reproductive freedom, if they want to win those voters’ votes.
In order to actually retain control of the House, Democrats will have to win almost all the seats that analysts currently consider “toss ups”. Right now, Decision Desk gives Republicans about an 87% chance of winning the House, Metaculus gives Republicans an 85% chance of winning the House, PredictIt gives Republicans about an 81% chance of winning the House, and 538 gives Republicans a 79% chance of winning the House. When I wrote about this question in June, I gave Republicans a 96% chance of winning the House. The last time the party that controlled the presidency was able to retain control of the House was in 2002, the year after the September 11 attacks. The Dobbs decision would probably have to have almost as great an impact as September 11 did on the political landscape for the Democrats to hold on to the House. It might be a longshot, but I don’t think it’s impossible.
My Forecast
Republicans have a 79% chance of winning a majority in the House
Republicans have a 28% chance of winning at least 240 seats in the House
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