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Jonathan Mann's avatar

Thank you for this reflection. While you didn't end up on the right side of maybe this time, your willingness to go out on a limb and make a forecast that went against prediction markets and the crowd based on your own perspective actually contributed to the information ecosystem making everyone's forecasts better.

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Lawdog's avatar

I think you may be being too hard on yourself regarding the prediction. Giving something a 30% chance means it will happen a lot. There was a lot of noise and not a lot of great signals. As Yogi said “Predicting is hard. Especially about the future.”

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