Postcard From Switzerland

Greetings from the Swiss Riviera

I’m in Switzerland attending a family reunion on the sidelines of the Montreux Jazz Festival. Apparently, I missed Raye and Janelle Monáe Thursday night while recovering from the red-eye I took to get here. I’ll be in Spain this week and finally return home the following week after a few days in California. Just six weeks ago, I thought there was 99% chance Joe Biden would be the Democratic nominee. That’s a huge forecasting miss, not just because Biden won’t be the nominee, but because he won’t be the nominee for the precise reasons many people thought he wouldn’t be. I haven’t had time to think carefully about how the extraordinary events of the last few weeks will affect the presidential race, but I’ve come to believe replacing Biden improves Democrats’ chances, especially given the outpouring of support for Kamala Harris in the brief time since Biden announced he’s stepping aside. I certainly don’t think Trump is the overwhelming favorite many people seem to believe he is. Throughout everything, the polls have barely changed; everything continues to point to a close race.