Live Forecaster Election Chat October 17
Mark your calendars now!
I’ll be hosting a live group chat with Jean-Pierre Beugoms, Scott Eastman, and Atief Heermance on Substack about the US election on Thursday, October 17 at 3:30 pm PT/6:30 pm ET. Anyone can participate, so mark your calendars now.
Mark your calendars for Thursday, October 17 at 3:30 pm PT/6:30 pm ET because I’m hosting a live group chat on Substack about the upcoming US election. It will be a chance for you to talk with me and with each other about what is already one of the most extraordinary election cycles in American history.
I’ll be joined by first-rate forecasters Jean-Pierre Beugoms, Scott Eastman, and Atief Heermance. I talked with Jean-Pierre about the election back in April—our conversation was by far my most read post ever—before Joe Biden withdrew from the race. Scott and Atief co-host with me the long-running but also long-overdue-for-a-new-episode NonProphets podcast. I’ll try to get other good forecasters I work with to join our discussion and weigh in as well. We’ll assess where we think the race stands, speculate about what could happen after the election, and answer your questions to the best of our abilities.
We’re in unprecedented territory. Donald Trump is an impeached former president, rapist, and felon with a devoted following who has promised to be a dictator and to prosecute his political enemies—this is actually somehow a fair description of him—while Kamala Harris is the incumbent vice president and would be the first woman to win the presidency but got the nomination only after the President and presumptive nominee stepped aside at the last minute over concerns he’s suffering from serious cognitive decline.
The polls are tight. Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 48.6% to 45.9% in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average, but is ahead by only small margins in the key states she will need to reach 270 votes in the Electoral College. Split Ticket’s presidential model currently gives Harris a 55% chance of winning; Metaculus forecasters give her a 56% chance of winning; Polymarket bettors give her just a 50% chance. The race for control of Congress is likely to be close too. Democrats lead Republicans 47.0% to 44.7% on FiveThirtyEight’s generic congressional ballot, but history shows that small leads on the generic ballot don’t necessarily translate to control of Congress. Split Ticket’s House model currently gives Democrats a 59% chance of winning back control of the House; Metaculus forecasters give them a 55% chance of winning back control; Polymarket bettors give them a 63% chance. Control of the Senate could come down to whether incumbent Democrat Jon Tester somehow wins in Montana, a state Trump is likely to win by 15-20 points. Split Ticket’s Senate model currently gives Democrats just a 21% chance of keeping the Senate; Metaculus forecasters give them a 29% chance; Polymarket bettors give them a 27% chance.
Again, we’ll be doing the live chat on Thursday, October 17 at 3:30 pm PT/6:30 pm ET. Anyone who subscribes to Telling the Future can participate. You’ll be able to join using the Substack app—which you can download here—or on the web. I’ll send out a reminder email the day before with more details. If you’re not already a subscriber, you can subscribe now using the button below. I very much hope you’ll join us!
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I'll try to be there!
Sounds great!