While reports early this year suggested another Taiwan Strait Crisis was likely in 2024, Good Judgment Superforecasters® think major conflict between China and Taiwan is unlikely in the near future.
China has been preparing to go to war for control of Taiwan for years. In his New Year’s address, Chinese President Xi Jinping called the reunification of China and Taiwan “inevitable.” That doesn’t mean that China will try to take Taiwan by force now or ever. But tensions across the Taiwan Strait are high after Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)—which maintains Taiwan's independence—won its third consecutive presidential term in January. A Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) survey of China experts conducted at the end of last year found that a majority thought another Taiwan Strait Crisis—defined fairly loosely—was either “likely” or “very likely” in 2024.
But Superforecasters don’t think a major crisis is all that likely this year. Good Judgment has generously agreed to let me share some of their proprietary forecasts—I didn’t contribute to any of these forecasts—on the chance of conflict between China and Taiwan. Good Judgment Superforecasters currently estimate the chance either side will accuse the other of using a weapon against it—even as just part of a minor skirmish—this year is just 5%; they collectively think there’s just a 2% chance Taiwan will accuse China of blockading any part of Taiwan this year; and virtually all agree the chance of China invading or launching a military assault against Taiwan in the next 90 days is close to 0%.
