The Next Taiwan Strait Crisis
The Next Taiwan Strait Crisis
A major crisis isn't likely this year, but the risk is growing
While reports early this year suggested another Taiwan Strait Crisis was likely in 2024, Good Judgment Superforecasters® think major conflict between China and Taiwan is unlikely in the near future.
China has been preparing to go to war for control of Taiwan for years. In his New Year’s address, Chinese President Xi Jinping called the reunification of China and Taiwan “inevitable.” That doesn’t mean that China will try to take Taiwan by force now or ever. But tensions across the Taiwan Strait are high after Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)—which maintains Taiwan's independence—won its third consecutive presidential term in January. A Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) survey of China experts conducted at the end of last year found that a majority thought another Taiwan Strait Crisis—defined fairly loosely—was either “likely” or “very likely” in 2024.
But Superforecasters don’t think a major crisis is all that likely this year. Good Judgment has generously agreed to let me share some of their proprietary forecasts—I didn’t contribute to any of these forecasts—on the chance of conflict between China and Taiwan. Good Judgment Superforecasters currently estimate the chance either side will accuse the other of using a weapon against it—even as just part of a minor skirmish—this year is just 5%; they collectively think there’s just a 2% chance Taiwan will accuse China of blockading any part of Taiwan this year; and virtually all agree the chance of China invading or launching a military assault against Taiwan in the next 90 days is close to 0%.
Good Judgment Superforecasters don’t deny the obvious tension between the two countries. Nor do they dismiss the prospect of military conflict between China and Taiwan entirely. Of course, the chance of conflict during this calendar year is low in part because a third of the year has already passed. The DPP’s Lai Ching-te won the presidency without the dramatic increase in tensions many feared. But Good Judgment Superforecasters didn’t actually think the chance of a crisis was that high even at the start of the year. They estimated in January there was just a 13% chance either side would use a weapon against the other in 2024—which again would include minor incidents—and just a 3% chance China would blockade any part of Taiwan in 2024. In spite of the obvious tensions, the Superforecasters simply don’t see signs that conflict is about to break out.
One reason is that while China would almost certainly prevail in some sense in an extended conflict with Taiwan, China appears to be a few years away from being able to mount a successful invasion. China may simply not be ready to force the issue. CIA Director William Burns said last year that Xi had ordered China’s military to be ready for conflict with Taiwan by 2027, which will be the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army. Recent revelations of widespread corruption in China’s Rocket Force, which commands its missiles, may cause China to defer aggressive action. China may prefer in any case to wait until its economic situation improves. While some Superforecasters think China might be tempted to make a move while US attention is focused on the Middle East, others think it makes more sense for China to wait to see who wins the US presidential election.
If conflict does break out in the near future, Superforecasters think it would likely be centered on one of the offshore territories administered by Taiwan, like the Kinmen Islands, which have been a flashpoint for previous confrontations. In any case, while China continues to use “gray zone” tactics—aggressive activities that fall short of war, like sorties into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), drone and surveillance balloons overflights, and disruptive military exercises—against Taiwan, Superforecasters don’t see signs of the military mobilization that would likely precede more aggressive action.
Military conflict with Taiwan carries real risks for Xi. Most Chinese would prefer peaceful unification to an actual invasion. But while Good Judgment Superforecasters haven’t been looking at the prospects of conflict past 2024, they don’t dismiss the idea that China might blockade the islands or launch an invasion eventually. The chance of a crisis may be relatively low now, but seems likely to rise over the next few years. As China’s ability to project power grows, it’s likely to increase military pressure on Taiwan. Metaculus forecasters, who are similarly skeptical about the prospects of a crisis in 2024, currently estimate there’s a 29% chance China will engage in a “full-scale” blockade of Taiwan before 2030 and 20% chance of a “full-scale” invasion before 2030. But they agree with Good Judgment Superforecasters that if there is another major crisis in the Taiwan Strait, it probably won’t be in 2024.
Good Judgment also recently released a report on the origins of COVID-19, in which Superforecasters assessed that the pandemic was 74% likely to have been caused by a natural zoonotic event resulting from contact with an infected non-human animal and only 25% likely to have been the product of an accident related to biomedical research. If you enjoyed this post, you can support my work by sharing it with others.
Public statements from washington indicate readiness will exist for a taiwan invasion in 2027, I don't know how much to trust public statements like this. After all in 2027 the Ukraine war will likely either be winding down or over, given the loss rates both sides have faced.
I usually don't put much credence to "corruption in one countries force" because in a country as large as china just having base rates of corruption for western nations would result in incredibly large amounts of it in terms of stories.
You'd think the Chinese Communist Party already has plenty of people to manage. Power trippers always want more of everything.