Fair enough! I now give Biden less-than-even odds of having a second term. I guess when I wrote the title I was referring to the fact that I think he will probably win if he runs again. In other words, I think he’s the favorite to win if he runs (and not just because he might drop out if he thinks he can’t win). But he’s definitely not the overwhelming favorite in any case.
Nothing says "probably win" quite like a <s>52%</s> 47% chance of winning!
Fair enough! I now give Biden less-than-even odds of having a second term. I guess when I wrote the title I was referring to the fact that I think he will probably win if he runs again. In other words, I think he’s the favorite to win if he runs (and not just because he might drop out if he thinks he can’t win). But he’s definitely not the overwhelming favorite in any case.