Biden Will Probably Run Again and Win
A dissenting view
Forecasters seem to be skeptical of Biden’s chance of winning a second presidential term or even his chance of being his party’s nominee again. But my view is that, like any other elected incumbent, he is likely to win the nomination and the presidency again.
The Swift Centre just put out its forecast of President Biden’s prospects for winning a second term in 2024. The Swift Centre asked a panel of first-rate forecasters how likely Biden is to win under a variety of different conditions in order to hone in on the key factors behind their forecasts. I contributed to the Swift Centre forecast, but I disagree strongly with the panel’s median view. I think, in particular, that Biden is both substantially more likely to be the Democratic nominee (the panel’s median probability is 73%) and more likely to win the presidency (the panel’s median probability is 34%). The panel is actually more bullish on Biden’s chances than other forecasters. Metaculus currently gives Biden just a 50% chance of being the nominee and just a 27% chance of winning a second term. I think those odds are much too low.
The last nine presidents who were eligible to run for another term all sought and won their party’s nomination. The last time an incumbent president wasn’t his party’s nominee was in 1968, when Lyndon Johnson decided not to seek the nomination amid widespread protests against the Vietnam War. Harry Truman similarly decided not to run in 1952 amid a similar backlash to the Korean War. But Johnson and Truman are clear exceptions, who decided not to run in the face of widespread opposition to their unpopular wars. In general, we should expect presidents who are eligible to run to win their party’s nomination.
There are three related reasons Biden might not be nominated again: 1) he might not be healthy enough to win; 2) he might not be popular enough to win; and 3) he might not want to serve another term. In my opinion, the first is the most significant factor. Biden will be almost 81 when the next election is held. If he is reelected, he’ll be 85 by the end of his term. According to actuarial tables, the average American male Biden’s age has about an 8% a 12% chance of dying between now and the election in 2024. With access to the best health care in the world, Biden’s chances of dying are probably lower than the average American’s—it’s probably not a coincidence that Jimmy Carter is 97, George H.W. Bush lived to 94, and Ronald Reagan lived to 93—but there’s also an additional chance that an illness in the next two years incapacitates Biden or prevents him from serving. I think there’s probably about a 12% chance Biden doesn’t run again for health reasons.
But if Biden is healthy, I think he’s very likely to run. If his approval numbers are as bad at the end of 2023 as they were over the summer, then he might not seek the nomination. But approval ratings vary significantly over the course of the presidency, and poor approval ratings two years before a presidential election are not a reliable indicator of a president’s chance of winning reelection. In this case, it’s reasonable to expect that economic conditions that are hurting Biden’s numbers are likely to improve. In the second year of his presidency, Obama’s approval was 45%, Clinton’s 42%, and Reagan’s just 37%. Bush senior, meanwhile, had a 75% approval rating at this point in his presidency thanks to the popularity of the Gulf War, but went on to lose reelection to Bill Clinton. Presidents take on things that might hurt their popularity—like withdrawing from Afghanistan—early in their presidencies because they know voters generally don’t vote on the basis of how they felt two years before an election.
Biden has also consistently said he intends to run again, in spite of rumors—spread at least in part as a way of scaring voters away from voting for him—that his plan is to step down in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris. While many Democrats might prefer someone else, the advantage Biden has as an elected incumbent probably wouldn’t transfer to his replacement. Johnson and Truman’s replacements, Hubert Humphrey and Adlai Stevenson. went on to lose in 1968 and 1952. The Democrats’ best chance of winning in 2024 is probably with Biden as the nominee.
If Biden does win the nomination, I think he’s the favorite to win the election. Our panel probabilities imply that, even if Biden is the nominee, he has a less than 50% chance of winning. But most elected incumbents—five of the last eight—win reelection. Biden may seem like a particularly weak incumbent because of his poor approval ratings and because of his age. But, again, poor approval ratings in the second year of his presidency are not that unusual or surprising. Low approval ratings are to be expected outside the initial honeymoon period of the presidency, especially while inflation is high. Biden’s age is likely to be a net negative if he faces a younger, apparently more vigorous opponent—that is, not against Trump—but unless Biden is clearly unwell I think age is likely to be a small factor relative to partisan enthusiasm. It may be hard in any case to portray Biden as weak and ineffectual with his administration’s objectively impressive list of accomplishments—passing historic climate change legislation, bipartisan gun safety legislation, and bipartisan infrastructure legislation, as well as rallying NATO against the Russian invasion of Ukraine—and when there is a meme about how frighteningly effective he is.
Nor do I think Republicans are in a particularly strong position to challenge Biden. The party is still largely dominated by former president Trump, who could realistically be indicted for a number of serious crimes. If Trump is charged or even convicted, it might galvanize his base, but would probably further tarnish enthusiasm for the Republican Party. Trump was not a popular president in any case, and may inspire more voters to turn out against him than to turn out for him. Biden has already beaten Trump once and should probably be the favorite if they square off again.
The Swift forecasts imply that Biden would have a harder time beating another Republican, like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who one Swift Centre forecaster called “Trumpism without the baggage of Trump”. But it’s not clear to me that DeSantis or another Republican would have significantly better odds than Trump of beating Biden. DeSantis may not have Trump’s baggage, but probably also doesn’t have Trump’s extraordinary gift for inspiring the Republican base. In any case, DeSantis doesn’t solve the Republican Party’s fundamental problem, which is that it’s beholden to a base that strongly supports unpopular things like a national abortion ban. DeSantis’ latest performative troll—he apparently sent a planeload of Venezuelan migrants who had been falsely promised work and housing to Martha’s Vineyard—doesn’t seem like a strategy for appealing to the general election voters in 2024.
There are still over two years before the next presidential election. Biden is by no means a lock to win the presidency again. Certainly, if his health fails or if voters remain unhappy with the economy in 2024, his odds of winning will fall. I agree with the Swift panel that if Biden faces a primary challenge from a prominent Democrat like Pete Buttigieg, it would be a strong sign Biden is unlikely to win. That’s not because Buttigieg presents any particular threat to Biden’s prospects, but because Buttigieg would be unlikely to challenge Biden unless Biden were weak. But my expectation is that Biden will win the nomination and will be the favorite to retake the presidency in 2024. It’s not that I think Biden has any extraordinary electoral gifts—at least not more than anyone else capable of winning the presidency—but because I think it’s the base case for an elected incumbent in his position.
My Forecast
UPDATE: I was convinced after I sent this out that I had incorrectly estimated the probability Biden might pull out of the nomination race for health or other reasons. Since the difference was substantial, I’ve updated my probabilities here.
Biden has an 80% chance of winning the Democratic nomination in 2024
Biden has a 47% chance of winning the presidency in 2024
Biden has an 87% chance of winning the Democratic nomination in 2024Biden has a 52% chance of winning the presidency in 2024
The success of the recent Ukrainian offensive is making me reconsider my view that a Russian defeat is unlikely. I recommend two recent essays in Comment Is Freed and The Cosmopolitan Globalist on the apparent collapse of Russian positions. If you enjoy my work, please consider supporting it by sharing it with others!
Nothing says "probably win" quite like a <s>52%</s> 47% chance of winning!