You wrote: "My guess is that 2025 will be a year of radical change." I think I agree with that.
A paragraph later you asked: "Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine? Will China blockade Taiwan? Will it be remembered as the year AI surpasses human intelligence?" And my answers (non-probabilistic) are no, no, and no.
So do I really think it will be a year of radical change in that case? That struck me as a tough split.
I agree with you, Boz. I don't think those things are likely to happen. I still think it's likely to be a year of radical change, but I probably chose somewhat implausible examples of possible change. Are there any particular dramatic events you think are more likely in 2025?
You wrote: "My guess is that 2025 will be a year of radical change." I think I agree with that.
A paragraph later you asked: "Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine? Will China blockade Taiwan? Will it be remembered as the year AI surpasses human intelligence?" And my answers (non-probabilistic) are no, no, and no.
So do I really think it will be a year of radical change in that case? That struck me as a tough split.
I agree with you, Boz. I don't think those things are likely to happen. I still think it's likely to be a year of radical change, but I probably chose somewhat implausible examples of possible change. Are there any particular dramatic events you think are more likely in 2025?