Mar 16, 2022·edited Mar 16, 2022Liked by Robert de Neufville
While there's a large practical difference between 10% and 4% (my current prediction is 4%) the costs of being wrong are so bad that getting a single sub 7% prediction wrong basically throws you out of the running in the good judgement open.
Revolutions have much more wind up before they start happening, if a revolution that would remove putin from power would happen it likely would have started about 1 week ago. (It takes a really long time to get the momentum for these sorts of things).
Putin is closer to 3-4% to "die" of natural causes based on the tables I could find. https://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main.61360?lang=en Maybe Putin has good medical care, but from what I can read medical care doesn't extend life all that much. Even if we us US death rates instead, he's still in the high 2%s
Though in spite of believing he has a higher chance of natural death than you put it, I think there's a lower chance of some sort of overthrow than you have it. As you rightfully point out dicatator's rarely if ever get overthrown. Putin is less likely than the base rate to be overthrown, as you yourself point out he has been better than average at stamping out opposition.
Thus I give putin a 95% chance to remain leader of russia next year. (while our forecasts don't differ much in magnitude they do differ in composition)
While there's a large practical difference between 10% and 4% (my current prediction is 4%) the costs of being wrong are so bad that getting a single sub 7% prediction wrong basically throws you out of the running in the good judgement open.
Revolutions have much more wind up before they start happening, if a revolution that would remove putin from power would happen it likely would have started about 1 week ago. (It takes a really long time to get the momentum for these sorts of things).
Putin is closer to 3-4% to "die" of natural causes based on the tables I could find. https://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main.61360?lang=en Maybe Putin has good medical care, but from what I can read medical care doesn't extend life all that much. Even if we us US death rates instead, he's still in the high 2%s
Though in spite of believing he has a higher chance of natural death than you put it, I think there's a lower chance of some sort of overthrow than you have it. As you rightfully point out dicatator's rarely if ever get overthrown. Putin is less likely than the base rate to be overthrown, as you yourself point out he has been better than average at stamping out opposition.
Thus I give putin a 95% chance to remain leader of russia next year. (while our forecasts don't differ much in magnitude they do differ in composition)
"An obviously correct but impossible proposal to impose a punitive tax on Russian oil and gas".
Please unconfuse me. When Trump imposed a punitive tax on Chinese goods, that was supposed to be a bad idea. Or not?