Nov 16, 2023Liked by Robert de Neufville

A note of caution on the Virginia election: Although they remained in control, Democrats actually lost a seat in the Senate, from 22 to 21. In the house a few seats flipped, but that could be attributed more to non-partisan districting replacing the previous districts that were favorable to Republicans. A much higher number of seats have been flipped in past elections. I was expecting more of a blue wave, and actually look at the results as a signal against one in 2024. It should be enough for Democrats to get a few key ballot measures (abortion, voting rights) on the ballot, though, which theoretically helps Democratic turnout in 2024.

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That's interesting, Justin. What made you expect even better for Democrats? Do you buy the theory that lower-propensity voters will shift the electorate in the direction of Republicans in 2024?

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Nov 17, 2023Liked by Robert de Neufville

I did not forecast the question, I just live here in Va. So basically just the success Democrats have been having across the country, I bought into the hype that a wave was more than a maybe. Depending on whom you ask, there are about 8-10 competitive house districts in Virginia's new map, with the rest evenly split between solid D & R. So with a blue wave, I would expect closer to 54 house seats. There were a couple of competitive races that Democrats lost, which you don't expect in a wave. You may even get some surprise wins with a wave. Waves just may not be what we expect anymore, though.

As for the second question, I haven't really looked at it but I'm skeptical at first blush. Democrats are getting younger and more PoC, also low propensity voters, right? I'd want to take a closer look myself before buying in.

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