A note of caution on the Virginia election: Although they remained in control, Democrats actually lost a seat in the Senate, from 22 to 21. In the house a few seats flipped, but that could be attributed more to non-partisan districting replacing the previous districts that were favorable to Republicans. A much higher number of seats have been flipped in past elections. I was expecting more of a blue wave, and actually look at the results as a signal against one in 2024. It should be enough for Democrats to get a few key ballot measures (abortion, voting rights) on the ballot, though, which theoretically helps Democratic turnout in 2024.
That's interesting, Justin. What made you expect even better for Democrats? Do you buy the theory that lower-propensity voters will shift the electorate in the direction of Republicans in 2024?
I did not forecast the question, I just live here in Va. So basically just the success Democrats have been having across the country, I bought into the hype that a wave was more than a maybe. Depending on whom you ask, there are about 8-10 competitive house districts in Virginia's new map, with the rest evenly split between solid D & R. So with a blue wave, I would expect closer to 54 house seats. There were a couple of competitive races that Democrats lost, which you don't expect in a wave. You may even get some surprise wins with a wave. Waves just may not be what we expect anymore, though.
As for the second question, I haven't really looked at it but I'm skeptical at first blush. Democrats are getting younger and more PoC, also low propensity voters, right? I'd want to take a closer look myself before buying in.
A note of caution on the Virginia election: Although they remained in control, Democrats actually lost a seat in the Senate, from 22 to 21. In the house a few seats flipped, but that could be attributed more to non-partisan districting replacing the previous districts that were favorable to Republicans. A much higher number of seats have been flipped in past elections. I was expecting more of a blue wave, and actually look at the results as a signal against one in 2024. It should be enough for Democrats to get a few key ballot measures (abortion, voting rights) on the ballot, though, which theoretically helps Democratic turnout in 2024.
That's interesting, Justin. What made you expect even better for Democrats? Do you buy the theory that lower-propensity voters will shift the electorate in the direction of Republicans in 2024?
I did not forecast the question, I just live here in Va. So basically just the success Democrats have been having across the country, I bought into the hype that a wave was more than a maybe. Depending on whom you ask, there are about 8-10 competitive house districts in Virginia's new map, with the rest evenly split between solid D & R. So with a blue wave, I would expect closer to 54 house seats. There were a couple of competitive races that Democrats lost, which you don't expect in a wave. You may even get some surprise wins with a wave. Waves just may not be what we expect anymore, though.
As for the second question, I haven't really looked at it but I'm skeptical at first blush. Democrats are getting younger and more PoC, also low propensity voters, right? I'd want to take a closer look myself before buying in.