It Can Happen Here

With fear for our democracy, I dissent

Donald Trump in front of a section of border wall in 2020 (Shealah Craighead)

I believe Trump must be defeated in this year’s election because I care deeply American democracy.

“Democracy is never a thing done. Democracy is always something that a nation must be doing.”¹ Archibald MacLeish wrote those words in 1941 as the US faced the prospect of global war against fascism. It seems like whether we live in a free society should be a settled matter by now, just as it must have seemed to MacLeish that it should have been a settled matter then. We should be able to devote our lives to other things and engage in the pursuit of happiness free from duress. But we don’t have that luxury; this year’s US election is a stark reminder that every generation has to bear the burden of protecting democracy.

I believe Donald Trump represents an extraordinary threat to American democracy. Forecasting requires judgment; my judgment is that Trump’s election to another term as president would be a catastrophe. Political scientists debate whether the MAGA movement is fascism in some technical sense, but there’s broad agreement that Trump is an authoritarian demagogue with little regard for the norms of American democracy. The people who have worked with Trump and know him well generally agree. Trump’s former Chief of Staff John Kelly recently went on record to say that Trump repeatedly praised Hitler and that he “met the definition of a fascist, would govern like a dictator if allowed, and had no understanding of the Constitution or the concept of rule of law”; Trump’s former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper told CNN he regards Trump as a “threat to democracy”; and Trump’s former Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley called Trump “the most dangerous person to this country” and “fascist to the core.”

American democracy survived the last Trump administration only because Trump failed to seize power after losing the 2020 election. To the extent that Trump adhered to the rule of law during his term it was because his advisors resisted his illegal and undemocratic orders. But if Trump is elected again in spite of his past abuses of power he has promised to appoint advisors willing to carry out his bidding and will have a mandate to disregard democratic norms. Congress would be largely unable to stop him unless a large number of Republican senators are willing to convict their party leader of treason, bribery, or high crimes and misdemeanors. A compliant Supreme Court is unlikely to check him after ruling this summer that presidents are presumptively immune from criminal liability for official acts—a decision that ACLU National Legal Director David Cole says “sits like a loaded weapon for Trump to abuse in the pursuit of criminal ends if he is reelected.”

As it was, Trump tried to hold on to power after he lost—and apparently knew full well he lost—a fair election. He repeatedly lied to the American people about the results of the election and managed to convince many Americans the election had in fact been rigged. He even said the election results justified the “termination” of articles of the Constitution. He ultimately directed a mob to attack the US Capitol to prevent the certification of the electoral vote that caused several deaths and if successful would have caused the most serious constitutional crisis since the Civil War. He knew that Americans would riot if he seized power illegally, but planned to use the Insurrection Act to put down any resistance. All this should be absolutely disqualifying. It is an unprecedented act of treason; it was an attempt to commit the greatest crime you commit against a democracy. The fact that things didn’t turn out worse is no guarantee that they won’t be worse next time. As the Kansas City Star writes, if you think this is an unfair or partisan characterization of what he did, read the indictment in USA v. Trump.

Now Trump and his allies have concrete plans to do what they failed to do in his first term. He is running on a promise to undertake a “bloody” campaign to deport millions of people using the same law that was used to intern Japanese-Americans during WWII. He has repeatedly said he’ll be a “dictator,” but, you know, just for a little while. He has accused CBS and ABC of unspecified crimes and suggested they should be shut down. He has described Democrats Nancy Pelosi and Adam Schiff as “the enemy from within”—a phrase borrowed from McCarthyism—and implied he would use law enforcement powers to go after them. As Kamala Harris says, he’s talking about “journalists, judges, nonpartisan election officials.” In a real sense—it’s basically his platform—a vote for Trump is a vote to make it criminal to oppose him. At a Trump rally in Georgia, Tucker Carlson told the crowd they should refuse to accept the election results if Trump doesn’t win and said—to raucous cheers—that Americans who challenge his authority “have been a bad girl” and are going to get a “vigorous spanking.”

So in this election I’m a single issue voter. The main thing that matters to me is American democracy. I care about other issues—about economic policy, civil rights, climate change, abortion access, the war between Israel and Hamas, Ukraine—a great deal. But I believe that in the long run, as long as we live in a basically free society and have fair elections, we’ll deal with those issues in a more or less reasonable way. What actually makes America great are the democratic institutions that give us a say over how we’re governed, protect our basic rights, and ensure the peaceful transfer of power. Michael Huemer is right that thanks to our institutions, America for all its flaws is so much better a place to live than most other societies that normal policy disagreements pale in importance by comparison. Americans have worked to develop those institutions over generations; if we lose them we may not be able to get them back.

We shouldn’t let the fact that Trump is a buffoon distract us from the seriousness of the authoritarian threat he poses, because Hitler was a buffoon too. I know what I’m saying sounds like an exaggeration, but unfortunately it isn’t one. I really wish we didn’t have to think about any of this. But Trump tried to subvert democracy once and would have a mandate to do it again. I believe Harris will be a good president, but ultimately I support Harris for the same reason that Liz Cheney does: because—unlike Trump—she will hand American democracy over to her successors in good condition.

I started a new chat thread you can use to share your forecasts or ask questions about the election here. I believe that Harris is a slight favorite, but it will probably be close. If you found this post persuasive, please share it with others who might find it persuasive too. And, then, vote.

1. Archibald MacLeish, The American Cause (1941).