Interpreting the keys is subjective. Based upon Lichtmans book, the third party key is flipped if a candidate gets 10% or more and RFK has. RFKs is also the primary that the Democrats tried to quash. He was trying to run in the Democratic primary. Also, Trump and Biden can both be categorized as incumbents. People remember that Trump was President before. 70% say the economy is bad. Afghanistan withdrawal and the current wars can be viewed as foreign policy failures. Lichtman is currently highly biased in how he interprets the keys. If you want to be impartial. Consider how it is possible to interpret a key and the reason for it as flipped. A technical recession or a majority of people experiencing a bad economy, more inflation and harder to make ends meet and afford the basics. A policy that passed or one that a majority really care about.
I would give biden 10/13 of the key's missing out on Charisma (x2) and major policy changes.
I tend to rely more heavily on a polling based approach, which currently puts me at Trump 55% Biden 45%. the 7 candidate tipping point states go as follows (negative means biden favor). Election polls this far out aren't super accurate but they aren't extremely inaccurate. I do agree that more "fundamentals" based approaches are more valuable method than it would be in october, but I still put >50% of the weight on the polls at this stage.
Pennsylvania -0.1
Wisconsin +2
Michigan +3
Georgia +4
North Carolina +4.8
Nevada +4.8
Arizona +5
Trump's electoral college lead is underrated IMO.
Trump's legal issues previously raised his popularity, why would you expect that to change in the future?
Interpreting the keys is subjective. Based upon Lichtmans book, the third party key is flipped if a candidate gets 10% or more and RFK has. RFKs is also the primary that the Democrats tried to quash. He was trying to run in the Democratic primary. Also, Trump and Biden can both be categorized as incumbents. People remember that Trump was President before. 70% say the economy is bad. Afghanistan withdrawal and the current wars can be viewed as foreign policy failures. Lichtman is currently highly biased in how he interprets the keys. If you want to be impartial. Consider how it is possible to interpret a key and the reason for it as flipped. A technical recession or a majority of people experiencing a bad economy, more inflation and harder to make ends meet and afford the basics. A policy that passed or one that a majority really care about.
I would give biden 10/13 of the key's missing out on Charisma (x2) and major policy changes.
I tend to rely more heavily on a polling based approach, which currently puts me at Trump 55% Biden 45%. the 7 candidate tipping point states go as follows (negative means biden favor). Election polls this far out aren't super accurate but they aren't extremely inaccurate. I do agree that more "fundamentals" based approaches are more valuable method than it would be in october, but I still put >50% of the weight on the polls at this stage.
Pennsylvania -0.1
Wisconsin +2
Michigan +3
Georgia +4
North Carolina +4.8
Nevada +4.8
Arizona +5
Trump's electoral college lead is underrated IMO.
Trump's legal issues previously raised his popularity, why would you expect that to change in the future?