.jpg "A protestor dressed like the QAnon Shaman with American flag face paint and a clown nose in front of the entrance to Trump Tower")
Donald Trump’s hold on the Republican Party may be weakening, but it’s still strong enough that he’d almost certainly be the Republican nominee if it weren’t for the legal problems he faces. Even with more indictments coming, Trump probably has even odds of being the nominee again.
It’s sometimes hard to see how Donald Trump could be the Republican nominee again. His awful record and serious legal problems ought to be—probably would be for any normal candidate—disqualifying. But given the strength of his hold on the Republican Party, it’s also hard to see how any Republican could win the nomination over him.
There’s no question that Trump’s hold on the Republican Party is weaker than it was at the height of his presidency. Americans typically move on from former presidents once they’re out of office. Trump certainly no longer commands the media attention he once did, and his rallies don’t attract the crowds they used to. But he has also remained enough in the public eye to remind people what they don’t like about him. More than two years after the end of his presidency 54% of Americans still have an unfavorable opinion of him, against just 42% who have a favorable opinion. There’s no popular demand for a Trump return.
Many Republicans would clearly prefer to nominate someone else. They know Trump is likely to lose to whoever the Democrats run. The median American voter has made it clear over the last three elections that they are sick of Trump’s bullshit. While he was in office, of course, he was impeached twice. The second time he was impeached, a majority of senators—including 7 Republicans—voted to convict him for inciting an insurrection. He avoided conviction only because the Constitution requires an almost insurmountable supermajority. Out of office he faces a staggering range of serious legal issues, including 34 felony charges for falsifying legal records, a probable indictment for interfering with the 2020 election in Georgia, a special counsel investigation into both his handling of classified documents after he left office and his role in inciting the January 6 insurrection, and a civil rape case.
But if Americans in general are ready to move on from Trump, the Republican base is not. The Republican Party has become Trump’s party. The party has spent the last 8 years demanding cult-like devotion to his person. It has made belief in his greatness the litmus test of Republicanness. Whatever he says—no matter how nuts—must be accepted without question. Republican leaders might be happy to leave him behind, but it isn’t up to them. Republicans who have challenged Trump’s leadership or acted independently of him have been largely purged from the party for their heresy. Those Republicans who are challenging him for the nomination have understandably been reluctant to criticize him directly.
The truth is that right now Trump—as unpopular as he is with the general electorate—faces no serious opposition within the Republican Party. He is ahead of the next most plausible candidate, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, in early primary polls by almost 26 points. DeSantis has dominated Florida politics over the last four years but is famously uncharismatic and doesn’t seem ready to compete on the national stage. DeSantis has a chance if Trump falters, but the fact that DeSantis’ culture-war-bully persona is essentially a Trump tribute act makes it difficult for him to attack Trump. DeSantis may ultimately just be the projected fantasy of Republicans who want an alternative to Trump. None of the other official candidates—which so far include former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, talk show host Larry Elder, and former pharmaceutical executive Vivek Ramaswamy—have the national following or name recognition to present a serious challenge.
If Trump didn’t weren’t in serious legal jeopardy, he would be extremely likely—or as likely as you can be more than a year away—to win the Republican nomination. He could still win the nomination even if he’s actually convicted of a felony or is sent to jail (although if he were found to have “engaged in insurrection or rebellion” he could be barred from holding office under the disqualification clause of the 14th Amendment). Eugene V. Debs ran for President in 1920 while in prison for sedition and managed to win 3.4% of the national vote. And some of the less serious or more tenuous charges against Trump might actually galvanize support for him among the Republican base.
Nevertheless, it’s unlikely that being indicted or going to trial in these cases will benefit Trump. Whether or not he is convicted of any crimes, the underlying conduct—which many voters are still only vaguely aware of—is pretty shocking. The throughline that runs through most of these cases and through both of Trump’s impeachments is what
has called “election criminality.” They’re not isolated incidents or technical infractions but together establish a pattern of trying to subvert the democratic process to stay in power through illegitimate means. It’s the kind of conduct that Americans of both parties still find shocking and that could make it extremely hard for him to win a general election. It’s unlikely to turn off Trump’s most passionate supporters, but it might finally drive more conventional Republicans to rally around an alternative candidate.
The question in the end is whether Trump’s legal issues will alienate enough Republicans to cause a break between him and the party. I think it’s a close call between the strength of Trump’s hold on the Republican Party and the seriousness of the allegations against him. In September, I gave Trump a 57% chance of winning the nomination and Ron DeSantis a 16% chance. In December—after Trump’s candidates did poorly in the midterm election and DeSantis did well—I gave Trump a 35% chance and DeSantis a 28% chance. Metaculus now gives Trump a 60% chance and DeSantis a 37% chance of being the nominee (which implies a surprisingly small chance of anyone else winning the nomination).
The latest
forecast—which I contributed to and which I largely agree with—is that Trump has a 53% chance of being the nominee. Trump’s chance wasn’t higher because our consensus is that Trump will probably to face charges in both the Georgia election interference and January 6 insurrection cases. We think he’s significantly less likely to be convicted of a felony before the nomination—in large part because the legal process will be slow—but if he were convicted it would significantly lower his chance of being the nominee again. If Trump isn’t the nominee again, it would be hard for him to mount a competitive third-party campaign across the country. But I would bet that one way or another he’d try to sabotage the Republican nominee’s chance of winning.My Forecast
Donald Trump has a 51% chance of winning the Republican nomination in 2024
Ron DeSantis has a 16% chance of winning the Republican nomination in 2024
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Fascinating and frightening