Apr 29, 2023Liked by Robert de Neufville

It's hard to see how any of Trumps's legal problems will affect his chances of being nominated. How many undecided voters can there be left at this point? If a voter has not been put off by all of Trump's previous behavior, it's hard to see how some obscure legal issue would influence them. I think it would take video of Trump beating a child to death or something very tangible, simple and dramatic like that to shake his base.

My guess is that Trump is over, unless Biden has a health emergency during the campaign. Then it essentially becomes Trump vs. Harris, which seems very hard to predict.

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Thanks for the comment, Phil.

I think there's actually a fair amount of discontent among the Republican Party about renominating Trump. Legal problems that further jeopardized their chance of winning the general election would give them cover to rally around an alternate candidate. His legal issues—rape, attempting to stay in power in spite of losing an election—also aren't that obscure. They won't sway his die-hard supporters, but they do still turn off some Republicans.

If Biden does have to drop out for some reason, it's by no means clear that Harris would be the nominee.

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Good points all Robert, thanks!

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Apr 22, 2023Liked by Robert de Neufville

Fascinating and frightening

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