Interesting, thanks! Metaculus seems pretty underconfident, considering the fairly lower base-rate of 5%
One small suggestion. I'm not sure whether this is an interesting forecasting question since a lot of people seem to be fairly confident in a positive outcome (my subjective, not quantified, feeling of the news - I may be wrong due to my poor following of the news in the last weeks). The question would be: Will Finland (and Sweden) successfully join NATO despite Turkeys current standpoint. GJO sees - in a transferable forecasting question - a 57% chance of resolving positively (https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2405-will-finland-and-or-sweden-become-members-of-nato-before-1-january-2023), which is far less confident.
I find this to be an interesting question regarding the near future of a (hopefully soon) Post-UKR-RU war and Russia's geopolitical ambitions.
Interesting, thanks! Metaculus seems pretty underconfident, considering the fairly lower base-rate of 5%
One small suggestion. I'm not sure whether this is an interesting forecasting question since a lot of people seem to be fairly confident in a positive outcome (my subjective, not quantified, feeling of the news - I may be wrong due to my poor following of the news in the last weeks). The question would be: Will Finland (and Sweden) successfully join NATO despite Turkeys current standpoint. GJO sees - in a transferable forecasting question - a 57% chance of resolving positively (https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2405-will-finland-and-or-sweden-become-members-of-nato-before-1-january-2023), which is far less confident.
I find this to be an interesting question regarding the near future of a (hopefully soon) Post-UKR-RU war and Russia's geopolitical ambitions.
Enjoy your vacation!