I appreciate how you don't mince words Robert. On a somewhat related note, what do you make of the recent talk about replacing Biden at the top of the ticket (supposing party insiders could convince him to step aside)? Personally, I think there would likely be more downside than upside, but it seems that Nate Silver and Ezra Klein think it would be a good idea.
Thanks, Jonathan. I always try to say what I believe as clearly and cogently as I can. I do worry about whether what I'm saying is really fair—and whether my forecasts are tainted by bias—but I also think it's important not to mince words simply to create an appearance of fairness. In any case, I agree with you that Biden stepping aside would probably hurt the Democrats' chances—unless Biden is really substantively impaired, which I don't think he is—because the alternatives would also seem flawed and because settling on one might divide the Democratic Party.
The main thing is that I don't think the polls should be considered a meaningful baseline right now. Polls always seem like the most objective measure we have, but the evidence is that polling 9 months ahead of a presidential election is only weakly predictive. Most voters don't follow politics that closely. I think a lot of them are only just beginning to realize that the Trump and Biden are going to be the nominees again. They're not watching Trump's speeches or following his trials. So, yeah, I think voters still haven't grasped 1) how serious Trump's criminal charges are; 2) that Trump's evangelical supporters not only want to outlaw abortion completely, but also say they want to end marriage equality, ban contraception, and even criminalize premarital sex; 3) that Trump continues to claim he won the 2020 election; and 4) that Trump has repeatedly promised to use the powers of his office to persecute his political opponents and keep himself in power. Trump's base may love his authoritarian Christian nationalism, but I don't think it's a winning platform in the US. General election voters hate all that stuff.
I appreciate how you don't mince words Robert. On a somewhat related note, what do you make of the recent talk about replacing Biden at the top of the ticket (supposing party insiders could convince him to step aside)? Personally, I think there would likely be more downside than upside, but it seems that Nate Silver and Ezra Klein think it would be a good idea.
Thanks, Jonathan. I always try to say what I believe as clearly and cogently as I can. I do worry about whether what I'm saying is really fair—and whether my forecasts are tainted by bias—but I also think it's important not to mince words simply to create an appearance of fairness. In any case, I agree with you that Biden stepping aside would probably hurt the Democrats' chances—unless Biden is really substantively impaired, which I don't think he is—because the alternatives would also seem flawed and because settling on one might divide the Democratic Party.
Oooft 68%. Wow. I'm at about 49% big gap
Yeah, I’m a relative outlier here. A lot of good forecasters have this closer to 50-50. I guess we’ll see.
I would note you're closer to the GJP mean here: https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/what-the-superforecasters-predict-for-major-events-in-2024 with 65% Dem victory 35% R victory. A few months old, ofc.
Yes, I'm not that far above the GJI aggregate—and not completely alone in my assessment—which makes me feel like I'm not necessarily delusional.
You think it's trump's crimes and abortion that's underrated in the polls currently?
The main thing is that I don't think the polls should be considered a meaningful baseline right now. Polls always seem like the most objective measure we have, but the evidence is that polling 9 months ahead of a presidential election is only weakly predictive. Most voters don't follow politics that closely. I think a lot of them are only just beginning to realize that the Trump and Biden are going to be the nominees again. They're not watching Trump's speeches or following his trials. So, yeah, I think voters still haven't grasped 1) how serious Trump's criminal charges are; 2) that Trump's evangelical supporters not only want to outlaw abortion completely, but also say they want to end marriage equality, ban contraception, and even criminalize premarital sex; 3) that Trump continues to claim he won the 2020 election; and 4) that Trump has repeatedly promised to use the powers of his office to persecute his political opponents and keep himself in power. Trump's base may love his authoritarian Christian nationalism, but I don't think it's a winning platform in the US. General election voters hate all that stuff.