Thank you for this article! I’m an amateur on Metaculus, I’ve written some questions and bid on several dozen. I noticed the change in scoring but hadn’t really had it explained to me.
In a couple of years I’m planning on becoming the Senior Instructor for a high school JROTC program. I will incorporate some sort of forecasting tournament. Great idea!
That's great. I think forecasting would be invaluable for students trying to understand politics or strategy. I'm really interested in developing a forecasting curriculum, so I'd love to hear what you end up putting together!
Thanks Robert for the link; it was most useful, since it gets into the details. Metaculus scoring system measures the information that each forecaster provides individually or as a group, and I totally agree with what they do. Too bad that they don't mention that in their FAQ, because it lends a strong theoretical foundation to the method. I haven't listened to the interview, so it's possible Tom Liptay mentions it there; possibly not, since it doesn't appear in the FAQ. I hope this helps.
Thank you for this article! I’m an amateur on Metaculus, I’ve written some questions and bid on several dozen. I noticed the change in scoring but hadn’t really had it explained to me.
In a couple of years I’m planning on becoming the Senior Instructor for a high school JROTC program. I will incorporate some sort of forecasting tournament. Great idea!
That's great. I think forecasting would be invaluable for students trying to understand politics or strategy. I'm really interested in developing a forecasting curriculum, so I'd love to hear what you end up putting together!
What type of log scoring do they have?
Giovanni, I believe your score for a forecasting an outcome would occur with probability P is ln(P(outcome)) https://www.metaculus.com/help/scores-faq/#log-score
Thanks Robert for the link; it was most useful, since it gets into the details. Metaculus scoring system measures the information that each forecaster provides individually or as a group, and I totally agree with what they do. Too bad that they don't mention that in their FAQ, because it lends a strong theoretical foundation to the method. I haven't listened to the interview, so it's possible Tom Liptay mentions it there; possibly not, since it doesn't appear in the FAQ. I hope this helps.