I normally interpret fellow forecasters very literally, but I won't do so for your: "It’s frankly hard for me to imagine Trump ever leaving office willingly." Surely the most likely scenario is that in 2028 we have another election and Trump doesn't run. Then he is replaced on schedule by the winner.
Thanks. I wish I hadn’t included that sentence since I clearly put it too strongly. But I didn’t mean to say it’s likely Trump won’t leave office. My point was that he’ll try to find a way to stay in office and won’t leave unless it is clear he has no other option. I’m genuinely not sure what will happen when he floats a rationale for why he should be allowed to run again or a scheme to keep him in office past the end of his term since his followers have been willing to go along with outrageous rationalizations before. But a more realistic concern is probably that his administration claims fraud and refuses to vacate office if the Democratic nominee defeats the Republican nominee. Is that ridiculous? It would seem more ridiculous to me if he hadn’t orchestrated January 6 and if the South Korean president hadn’t just tried to seize power (although I understand that South Korea has a recent history of authoritarianism).
I see what you were saying and it makes sense in light of your explanation. Unfortunately, rather than making a plan to deal with Trump trying to stay in office, I think the strategy for lawmakers and others is to hope it doesn't happen and then deal with it if it comes up. Now that I see what you were getting at it makes sense. I do think Trump will test the waters to see how much he can get away with. I'm expecting that most Republicans will say it was just a joke and then proceed like nothing happened. My best guess is that once the Republican primary gets going, I think it will become clear to Trump that there isn't a path for him to hold onto power directly, but it doesn't mean that there won't be lots of unpleasant "jokes" along the way.
That is exactly what I was saying. Trump will try to see what he can get away with—and it will probably be more than it should be!—but I think you're right that he won't have a realistic path to hold onto power directly. That said, talking with you makes me realize that I have been more worried about some things than I realistically should be. One of the great things about writing is it helps you see where you're wrong.
yeah, Trump staying in office past 2028 seems pretty unlikely. There will be a primary process for the replacement Republican (even if it's just a coronation of Vance depending on how things go) and that Republican will be running a campaign. The Republican party will stand for many shenanigans, but probably not something like Trump running a shadow campaign against the 2028 nominee.
I agree. I wish I hadn't included that sentence. I edited the post to clarify that I think Trump will try to find a way to stay in power, not that he'll actually be able to. I think he'll leave when it's clear that he has no other option but to leave.
I normally interpret fellow forecasters very literally, but I won't do so for your: "It’s frankly hard for me to imagine Trump ever leaving office willingly." Surely the most likely scenario is that in 2028 we have another election and Trump doesn't run. Then he is replaced on schedule by the winner.
Thanks. I wish I hadn’t included that sentence since I clearly put it too strongly. But I didn’t mean to say it’s likely Trump won’t leave office. My point was that he’ll try to find a way to stay in office and won’t leave unless it is clear he has no other option. I’m genuinely not sure what will happen when he floats a rationale for why he should be allowed to run again or a scheme to keep him in office past the end of his term since his followers have been willing to go along with outrageous rationalizations before. But a more realistic concern is probably that his administration claims fraud and refuses to vacate office if the Democratic nominee defeats the Republican nominee. Is that ridiculous? It would seem more ridiculous to me if he hadn’t orchestrated January 6 and if the South Korean president hadn’t just tried to seize power (although I understand that South Korea has a recent history of authoritarianism).
I see what you were saying and it makes sense in light of your explanation. Unfortunately, rather than making a plan to deal with Trump trying to stay in office, I think the strategy for lawmakers and others is to hope it doesn't happen and then deal with it if it comes up. Now that I see what you were getting at it makes sense. I do think Trump will test the waters to see how much he can get away with. I'm expecting that most Republicans will say it was just a joke and then proceed like nothing happened. My best guess is that once the Republican primary gets going, I think it will become clear to Trump that there isn't a path for him to hold onto power directly, but it doesn't mean that there won't be lots of unpleasant "jokes" along the way.
That is exactly what I was saying. Trump will try to see what he can get away with—and it will probably be more than it should be!—but I think you're right that he won't have a realistic path to hold onto power directly. That said, talking with you makes me realize that I have been more worried about some things than I realistically should be. One of the great things about writing is it helps you see where you're wrong.
yeah, Trump staying in office past 2028 seems pretty unlikely. There will be a primary process for the replacement Republican (even if it's just a coronation of Vance depending on how things go) and that Republican will be running a campaign. The Republican party will stand for many shenanigans, but probably not something like Trump running a shadow campaign against the 2028 nominee.
I agree. I wish I hadn't included that sentence. I edited the post to clarify that I think Trump will try to find a way to stay in power, not that he'll actually be able to. I think he'll leave when it's clear that he has no other option but to leave.