Jan 10Liked by Robert de Neufville

I am relieved that you feel confident that Biden will win. I am not a superforecaster and have been having a tough time trying to determine if my confidence in him has been motivated reasoning.

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I know what you mean. I want to believe that Biden will win or at least that Trump won't win. But as hard as it is for me to understand how someone could vote for Trump, it's clear that Biden could lose to him. It makes me anxious thinking about it. I do believe that Biden is a solid favorite—and the other superforecasters who contributed to The Economist's 2024 preview (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/what-the-superforecasters-predict-for-major-events-in-2024) agree—but Biden is definitely not a stone-cold lock to win.

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