I love your articles. How do you go about finding base rates? Also, how might liquidity affect the arbitrage? You are very busy; thank you so much for reading my comment. :)
I didn't rely on the base rates much in this forecast because the current situation seems clearly different to me in key ways from the history, but in general I think historical situations that seem intuitively similar are a good place to look for the base rate. So in this case the question was how often has a incumbent president who lost reelection run again?
The fact that the markets are small doesn't alter the fact that there's an arbitrage opportunity. I just meant that because the markets are small, even a small investment will affect the price of the shares significantly and close the gap between the two markets. As a result you probably can't execute that many shares of the trade. You should be able to make money on this, but I think the total may be small? If you try it and make money, please let me know!
I imagine some of the predictit issue is that it might be closed down by the time those resolve.
Yeah, I agree. I don't how that impacts how these will contracts will pay out.
I love your articles. How do you go about finding base rates? Also, how might liquidity affect the arbitrage? You are very busy; thank you so much for reading my comment. :)
Thanks, Smaug!
I didn't rely on the base rates much in this forecast because the current situation seems clearly different to me in key ways from the history, but in general I think historical situations that seem intuitively similar are a good place to look for the base rate. So in this case the question was how often has a incumbent president who lost reelection run again?
The fact that the markets are small doesn't alter the fact that there's an arbitrage opportunity. I just meant that because the markets are small, even a small investment will affect the price of the shares significantly and close the gap between the two markets. As a result you probably can't execute that many shares of the trade. You should be able to make money on this, but I think the total may be small? If you try it and make money, please let me know!