> The delusion that if we throw Ukraine under the bus, we can freeze the conflict, and then it can go away, and then we can go back to business as usual.
It's worth exploring the potential consequences of this delusion.
The Kremlin will sit down for peace talks with Ukraine, perhaps this January. The Kremlin will say "So! You've had our demands for a solid year now. Give it all to us!" Ukraine responds, "We would be crazy to agree to all that! Are you insane?" So the war continues. The exhaustion of Soviet equipment reserves is within sight, but it would take at least another year, maybe two. The EU doesn't deliver very much more equipment, because the existence of the war is getting on their nerves. Trump asks why Ukraine is being so stubborn, and blocks an aid bill. Putin was ready to scale back his demands but, sensing weakness, presses forward militarily instead. Ukraine, lacking equipment, is forced to retreat and evacuate Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Lyman, but still cannot agree to Russia's demands because Ukraine would lose much more than have already lost. Soon, Russia takes the east side of the Oskill river to the north, and then reaches the borders of Donetsk.
After an operational pause, the Russians concentrate all forces on eastern Zaporizhzhia oblast, an axis of advance the Ukrainians never prepared for in 2024, and quickly gain ground. Ukraine still cannot agree to Russia's demands because it would mean Ukraine loses much more than they have already lost. The Ukrainians stop the Russians near the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia city, so the Russians turn north and begin consuming Dnipropetrovsk, while simultaneously advancing on Izyum once again. Millions of east-Ukrainians prepare to flee westward.
Finally, EU leaders realize what they should have known all along, that they have no power to end the war. Still, they're reluctant to sign long-term weapons production contracts because Russia is advancing so quickly that maybe they will have stopped advancing voluntarily by the time production ramps up. And so they increase production a little here and there, make a deal with the USA to buy some weapons, and debate whether to seize Russia's frozen accounts to pay for Ukraine's defense. Ukrainian refugees begin streaming into Poland, but Poland soon closes the border as the Polish are tired of taking care of refugees....
Russia refocuses on Kharkiv oblast. They capture Balaklia, then Zmiiv, and then attempt to encircle Kharkiv once again as half of the residents flee, about 600,000 people. This time the encirclement succeeds. Soldiers trapped in the city put on civilian clothes; officials close and lock government buildings. The Russians enter. The filtration process begins.
Ukrainians soften their position in peace talks, now giving in to most of Russia's demands. Russia refuses, saying Ukraine must meet ALL demands AND officially allow a "referendum" in Kharkiv, administered by Russia, on the question of Kharkiv joining Russia.
The EU finally agrees to long-term weapons production and quickly sends more equipment to Ukraine, although stocks are running much lower than normal.
Next the Russians advance toward Poltava, but swerve North and begin a pincer movement to encircle Sumy. Half a million people try to flee, though a thousand or so encounter Russian military vehicles or drones along the way and do not survive. Sumy is encircled. [edited]
Meanwhile, president Xi is pleased to see all this. He knows Putin horribly bungled the war from the beginning, yet is now enjoying serious battlefield success! China has over 50 times the population of Taiwan, so it's obvious to everyone that Taiwan cannot withstand a protracted war with the PLA unless American troops fight on their side―but the U.S. is weak and isolationist, not even willing to spend 0.1% of GDP on Ukraine anymore, while most other democracies are equally decadent and lazy. There's still a risk of U.S. intervention, but even then, a little patience is all China will need. And so Xi's preparations begin in earnest.
The encirclement is complete and Russians dig in. After securing supply lines and setting up FOBs, the Russians attempt to continue their march west, but EU weapons are having an impact and the Russian advance slows to a crawl once again. Russian forces decide to try several axes of further advance, and after a few months, manage to encircle Chernihiv a second time, and then advance toward Kyiv, reaching 12 km from the outskirts of the city. Putin cancels peace talks entirely.
Russian forces, now at the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia and Kyiv, among other places, stop fighting and dig in. They build trenches and place minefields. They sign a long-term contract with North Korea for artillery shells. They begin indiscriminately shelling Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, and Poltava. meanwhile, the shelling of Kherson continues as it always does.
Two million refugees stream west. Illegal border crossing points are established. They enter Poland, Slovakia, Romania, Moldova and Belarus. So begins the refugee crisis. And Ukraine, devastated by war, power grid destroyed, angered by western indifference, slides toward "failed state" status. At least they didn't have to give in to Russian demands: the Russians didn't get the two large bridgeheads on the west side of the Dnipro river that they demanded and theoretically Ukraine could still join NATO someday. And Ukraine is able to develop a successful military export sector.
Russia never advances further, as they have their hands full administering their new territory. But every day a hundred shells are tossed randomly onto Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia. Not enough to destroy the cities; just enough to destroy the economy. Meanwhile, every day the PLA's preparations become more and more obvious...
The above is what I think a worst-case scenario looks like. It’s unlikely, especially given Ukraine’s relative self-reliance on the most important weapon system of the war, drones. But it seems possible. And if people were more reasonable, it wouldn’t be.
> The delusion that if we throw Ukraine under the bus, we can freeze the conflict, and then it can go away, and then we can go back to business as usual.
It's worth exploring the potential consequences of this delusion.
The Kremlin will sit down for peace talks with Ukraine, perhaps this January. The Kremlin will say "So! You've had our demands for a solid year now. Give it all to us!" Ukraine responds, "We would be crazy to agree to all that! Are you insane?" So the war continues. The exhaustion of Soviet equipment reserves is within sight, but it would take at least another year, maybe two. The EU doesn't deliver very much more equipment, because the existence of the war is getting on their nerves. Trump asks why Ukraine is being so stubborn, and blocks an aid bill. Putin was ready to scale back his demands but, sensing weakness, presses forward militarily instead. Ukraine, lacking equipment, is forced to retreat and evacuate Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Lyman, but still cannot agree to Russia's demands because Ukraine would lose much more than have already lost. Soon, Russia takes the east side of the Oskill river to the north, and then reaches the borders of Donetsk.
After an operational pause, the Russians concentrate all forces on eastern Zaporizhzhia oblast, an axis of advance the Ukrainians never prepared for in 2024, and quickly gain ground. Ukraine still cannot agree to Russia's demands because it would mean Ukraine loses much more than they have already lost. The Ukrainians stop the Russians near the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia city, so the Russians turn north and begin consuming Dnipropetrovsk, while simultaneously advancing on Izyum once again. Millions of east-Ukrainians prepare to flee westward.
Finally, EU leaders realize what they should have known all along, that they have no power to end the war. Still, they're reluctant to sign long-term weapons production contracts because Russia is advancing so quickly that maybe they will have stopped advancing voluntarily by the time production ramps up. And so they increase production a little here and there, make a deal with the USA to buy some weapons, and debate whether to seize Russia's frozen accounts to pay for Ukraine's defense. Ukrainian refugees begin streaming into Poland, but Poland soon closes the border as the Polish are tired of taking care of refugees....
Russia refocuses on Kharkiv oblast. They capture Balaklia, then Zmiiv, and then attempt to encircle Kharkiv once again as half of the residents flee, about 600,000 people. This time the encirclement succeeds. Soldiers trapped in the city put on civilian clothes; officials close and lock government buildings. The Russians enter. The filtration process begins.
Ukrainians soften their position in peace talks, now giving in to most of Russia's demands. Russia refuses, saying Ukraine must meet ALL demands AND officially allow a "referendum" in Kharkiv, administered by Russia, on the question of Kharkiv joining Russia.
The EU finally agrees to long-term weapons production and quickly sends more equipment to Ukraine, although stocks are running much lower than normal.
Next the Russians advance toward Poltava, but swerve North and begin a pincer movement to encircle Sumy. Half a million people try to flee, though a thousand or so encounter Russian military vehicles or drones along the way and do not survive. Sumy is encircled. [edited]
Meanwhile, president Xi is pleased to see all this. He knows Putin horribly bungled the war from the beginning, yet is now enjoying serious battlefield success! China has over 50 times the population of Taiwan, so it's obvious to everyone that Taiwan cannot withstand a protracted war with the PLA unless American troops fight on their side―but the U.S. is weak and isolationist, not even willing to spend 0.1% of GDP on Ukraine anymore, while most other democracies are equally decadent and lazy. There's still a risk of U.S. intervention, but even then, a little patience is all China will need. And so Xi's preparations begin in earnest.
The encirclement is complete and Russians dig in. After securing supply lines and setting up FOBs, the Russians attempt to continue their march west, but EU weapons are having an impact and the Russian advance slows to a crawl once again. Russian forces decide to try several axes of further advance, and after a few months, manage to encircle Chernihiv a second time, and then advance toward Kyiv, reaching 12 km from the outskirts of the city. Putin cancels peace talks entirely.
Russian forces, now at the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia and Kyiv, among other places, stop fighting and dig in. They build trenches and place minefields. They sign a long-term contract with North Korea for artillery shells. They begin indiscriminately shelling Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, and Poltava. meanwhile, the shelling of Kherson continues as it always does.
Two million refugees stream west. Illegal border crossing points are established. They enter Poland, Slovakia, Romania, Moldova and Belarus. So begins the refugee crisis. And Ukraine, devastated by war, power grid destroyed, angered by western indifference, slides toward "failed state" status. At least they didn't have to give in to Russian demands: the Russians didn't get the two large bridgeheads on the west side of the Dnipro river that they demanded and theoretically Ukraine could still join NATO someday. And Ukraine is able to develop a successful military export sector.
Russia never advances further, as they have their hands full administering their new territory. But every day a hundred shells are tossed randomly onto Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia. Not enough to destroy the cities; just enough to destroy the economy. Meanwhile, every day the PLA's preparations become more and more obvious...
The above is what I think a worst-case scenario looks like. It’s unlikely, especially given Ukraine’s relative self-reliance on the most important weapon system of the war, drones. But it seems possible. And if people were more reasonable, it wouldn’t be.