Thanks, Jonathan. I think it would depend a lot on how severe the recession is. If unemployment rises to 5% and output drops slightly, I suspect that wouldn't change many voters minds about whether they want another Trump administration. But if some shock drives unemployment up to 7% then I think that probably would change things. What are your thoughts?
Great analysis, Robert! I wonder about sub-scenarios including: Biden encounters serious health issues prior to receiving the nomination — how does that change Democratic odds (who are the most likely nominees in that case); and Biden is the nominee but encounters health issues prior to the election (is there a mechanism to change the nominee)?
Thanks, Chris. I think the closer to the official nomination or election the more likely Harris is to be Biden's replacement. I don't know offhand what the mechanisms are for replacing a nominee are. It's a great question. I know at some point it's simply not possible to replace a candidate the ballot in every state but I'm not sure what would happen.
Great post Robert! As a follow-on to Christopher North's comment, I'm curious how you think a recession would change these odds.
Thanks, Jonathan. I think it would depend a lot on how severe the recession is. If unemployment rises to 5% and output drops slightly, I suspect that wouldn't change many voters minds about whether they want another Trump administration. But if some shock drives unemployment up to 7% then I think that probably would change things. What are your thoughts?
Great analysis, Robert! I wonder about sub-scenarios including: Biden encounters serious health issues prior to receiving the nomination — how does that change Democratic odds (who are the most likely nominees in that case); and Biden is the nominee but encounters health issues prior to the election (is there a mechanism to change the nominee)?
Thanks, Chris. I think the closer to the official nomination or election the more likely Harris is to be Biden's replacement. I don't know offhand what the mechanisms are for replacing a nominee are. It's a great question. I know at some point it's simply not possible to replace a candidate the ballot in every state but I'm not sure what would happen.