Great analysis, Robert! I wonder about sub-scenarios including: Biden encounters serious health issues prior to receiving the nomination — how does that change Democratic odds (who are the most likely nominees in that case); and Biden is the nominee but encounters health issues prior to the election (is there a mechanism to change the nominee)?
Great post Robert! As a follow-on to Christopher North's comment, I'm curious how you think a recession would change these odds.
Great analysis, Robert! I wonder about sub-scenarios including: Biden encounters serious health issues prior to receiving the nomination — how does that change Democratic odds (who are the most likely nominees in that case); and Biden is the nominee but encounters health issues prior to the election (is there a mechanism to change the nominee)?