Biden's the Favorite in 2024
Republicans are a mess
President Biden is likely to win reelection in 2024. That’s partly because Biden is the incumbent. But it’s also because Republicans have hitched their wagon to Donald Trump, who is unpopular and will likely spend most of 2024 on trial.
Last September—in one of my most controversial forecasts—I predicted President Biden was very likely to run for reelection and a solid favorite to win if he did. Biden’s approval ratings were low, with voters concerned about his ability to be an effective president at his age. Inflation had peaked at the highest rate in forty years. But the fact is that incumbent presidents generally win reelection; a president’s approval ratings two years ahead of an election are not a strong indicator of their reelection chances; and inflation was likely to fall before the election kicked off. Meanwhile, likely Republican nominee and de facto head of the Republican Party Donald Trump was almost as old as Biden, even less popular, and on the verge of being indicted for a wide range of crimes.
Republicans’ national prospects have not improved since September. In fact, Republicans have been underperforming in special elections across the country. Trump has now been indicted in four separate cases and is supposed to surrender himself to the authorities today in Georgia. The charges against him are likely to hurt Republicans in competitive districts, but instead of moving on from him, Republicans are doubling down on Trump and Trumpist populism. Inflation, which has been keeping Republicans competitive with Democrats, has fallen back to almost normal levels.
