Early Polls and Off-Year Elections
Republicans are still a mess
Trump and Republicans face strong headwinds going into next year’s elections. In spite of Biden’s poor polling numbers, I remain convinced that Republican extremism and dysfunction make Biden the favorite in 2024.
Joe Biden is not a popular president. A recent New York Times/Siena poll found that Trump is ahead of Biden among registered voters in five out of six swing states. Biden’s numbers have been historically bad throughout his term. His net approval is currently at around -17 points, which is further under water than Donald Trump was at this point in his presidency. It’s clear from the polling that voters blame Biden for the challenging economic conditions of the last few years, and have doubts about his ability to be an effective president given his age.
Just two days after that New York Times/Siena poll came out, Democrats defeated Republicans almost across the board in last Tuesday’s off-year elections. Democrats retained control of the state Senate and won back control of the state House in Virginia. They held onto their substantial majority in the state Senate and increased their majority in the state Assembly. They expanded their control of the state legislature in New Jersey. In Pennsylvania, Dan McCaffery won an open seat on the state Supreme Court, giving Democrats a 5-2 majority. In Kentucky—a state Trump won by 26 points in 2020—Democrat Andy Beshear won reelection as governor. In Ohio—another state Trump won—voters approved a measure adding the right to obtain an abortion to the state constitution by a substantial margin. Democrats’ one high profile loss came in Mississippi, where Brandon Presley failed to win the race for governor, but nevertheless managed to do well for a Democrat in Mississippi. These off-year results are not outliers. Democrats have outperformed expectations in special elections all year and did well in almost every major election since Trump’s victory in 2016.
