“If you want to become a better forecaster, start here.”—Dan Gardner, author of Superforecasting
We can predict the future, although not with complete certainty or accuracy. Our world is full of all sorts of predictable regularities. We routinely organize our lives and make plans around them. Some things—like whether the sun will rise—are easy to know in advance, while others—like the lottery numbers—are practically impossible to predict. In between is the crucial category of things that are hard to foresee but still to an extent foreseeable. The more accurately we can anticipate what is to come, the better decisions we can make. Telling the Future is a newsletter about forecasting and the future; it’s about how we can use careful reasoning to figure out what’s going to happen before it happens.
I am a Professional Superforecaster® for Good Judgment—which profiled me here—as well as a Metaculus Pro Forecaster and a Professional Forecaster with the Swift Centre. I qualified as a Superforecaster in 2014 by being among the top forecasters in IARPA’s experimental forecasting tournament. Superforecasters like me were able to consistently outperform both the control group and intelligence community analysts, and continue to prove more accurate than other forecasting methods. I previously researched the risk of catastrophes severe enough to threaten human civilization with the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute. I have contributed to The Economist, The Washington Monthly, The National Interest, and California Magazine, and have been interviewed on the Future of Life, 80k After Hours, and Hyperfixed podcasts. You can follow me on Bluesky at @deneufville.bsky.social.
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