Forecasting

Can AI Compete With Human Forecasters?

It looks like not yet

Oct 12 •

Robert de Neufville

Is Forecasting Just Vibes?

You say that like it's a bad thing

Aug 29 •

Robert de Neufville

Do You Believe in Coincidences?

Yeah of course absolutely

Jun 15 •

Robert de Neufville

Tom Liptay on Scoring Forecasts

"In our ideal world, we would be read at the White House"

Jan 17 •

Robert de Neufville

45:05

Generational Change

An end-of-the-year meditation with old photos

Dec 30, 2023 •

Robert de Neufville

Michael Story on Making Useful Forecasts

"It's like we're firing these forecasts out into the void"

Dec 1, 2023 •

Robert de Neufville

45:33

The Outside View

We're not exceptions to the rule that people are often wrong

Aug 7, 2023 •

Robert de Neufville

Forecasting the End of the World

New estimates of p(doom)

Jul 25, 2023 •

Robert de Neufville

Forecasting Extraordinary Events

There's a first time for everything

May 23, 2023 •

Robert de Neufville

Clouds and Clocks

Reply hazy, try again later

Apr 1, 2023 •

Robert de Neufville

The Predictable and the Unpredictable

Foresight is maybe 20/200

Mar 4, 2023 •

Robert de Neufville

The Predictive Power of Simple Rules

Don't overthink it

Feb 3, 2023 •

Robert de Neufville

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