Telling the Future
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Toby Shevlane on Building AI Forecasters
"In a few months time it’s my belief that it will no longer be clear that systems like Mantic are below the performance of the human pros"
Nov 13
•
Robert de Neufville
3
1
1
49:20
Josh Rosenberg on Forecasting Research
"In the next year to eight years, the extrapolated trend would suggest that AIs will catch up to superforecasters"
Sep 24
•
Robert de Neufville
12
3
41:55
Language Models Still Can't Forecast
All my forecasts are hand produced by humans
Jul 31
•
Robert de Neufville
8
10
3
The Forecasting Proficiency Test
And what it teaches us about forecasting
Feb 11
•
Robert de Neufville
10
Google's Breakthrough Weather AI
The weather may be getting worse, but we're getting better at forecasting it
Dec 20, 2024
•
Robert de Neufville
5
2
Can AI Compete With Human Forecasters?
It looks like not yet
Oct 12, 2024
•
Robert de Neufville
8
7
6
Is Forecasting Just Vibes?
You say that like it's a bad thing
Aug 29, 2024
•
Robert de Neufville
11
6
1
Do You Believe in Coincidences?
Yeah of course absolutely
Jun 15, 2024
•
Robert de Neufville
10
2
Tom Liptay on Scoring Forecasts
"In our ideal world, we would be read at the White House"
Jan 17, 2024
•
Robert de Neufville
5
5
3
45:05
Generational Change
An end-of-the-year meditation with old photos
Dec 30, 2023
•
Robert de Neufville
7
1
Michael Story on Making Useful Forecasts
"It's like we're firing these forecasts out into the void"
Dec 1, 2023
•
Robert de Neufville
13
8
2
45:33
The Outside View
We're not exceptions to the rule that people are often wrong
Aug 7, 2023
•
Robert de Neufville
10
5
5
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