Telling the Future
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Josh Rosenberg on Forecasting Research
"In the next year to eight years, the extrapolated trend would suggest that AIs will catch up to superforecasters"
Sep 24
•
Robert de Neufville
9
41:55
Language Models Still Can't Forecast
All my forecasts are hand produced by humans
Jul 31
•
Robert de Neufville
8
10
The Forecasting Proficiency Test
And what it teaches us about forecasting
Feb 11
•
Robert de Neufville
10
Google's Breakthrough Weather AI
The weather may be getting worse, but we're getting better at forecasting it
Dec 20, 2024
•
Robert de Neufville
5
Can AI Compete With Human Forecasters?
It looks like not yet
Oct 12, 2024
•
Robert de Neufville
8
7
Is Forecasting Just Vibes?
You say that like it's a bad thing
Aug 29, 2024
•
Robert de Neufville
11
6
Do You Believe in Coincidences?
Yeah of course absolutely
Jun 15, 2024
•
Robert de Neufville
10
1
Tom Liptay on Scoring Forecasts
"In our ideal world, we would be read at the White House"
Jan 17, 2024
•
Robert de Neufville
5
5
45:05
Generational Change
An end-of-the-year meditation with old photos
Dec 30, 2023
•
Robert de Neufville
7
Michael Story on Making Useful Forecasts
"It's like we're firing these forecasts out into the void"
Dec 1, 2023
•
Robert de Neufville
13
8
45:33
The Outside View
We're not exceptions to the rule that people are often wrong
Aug 7, 2023
•
Robert de Neufville
10
5
Forecasting the End of the World
New estimates of p(doom)
Jul 25, 2023
•
Robert de Neufville
12
15
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