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Forecasting

Tom Liptay on Scoring Forecasts
"In our ideal world, we would be read at the White House"
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Robert de Neufville
5
45:05
Generational Change
An end-of-the-year meditation with old photos
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Robert de Neufville
Michael Story on Making Useful Forecasts
"It's like we're firing these forecasts out into the void"
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Robert de Neufville
8
45:33
The Outside View
We're not exceptions to the rule that people are often wrong
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Robert de Neufville
5
Forecasting the End of the World
New estimates of p(doom)
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Robert de Neufville
15
Forecasting Extraordinary Events
There's a first time for everything
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Robert de Neufville
Clouds and Clocks
Reply hazy, try again later
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Robert de Neufville
3
The Predictable and the Unpredictable
Foresight is maybe 20/200
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Robert de Neufville
6
The Predictive Power of Simple Rules
Don't overthink it
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Robert de Neufville
4
The Parable of the Rocks
Dumb rules for forecasting
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Robert de Neufville
2
Possible Worlds
Using forecasting to evaluate policy options and maybe save the world
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Robert de Neufville
Forecasting Is a Skill
People and institutions can get better at it
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Robert de Neufville
© 2024 Robert de Neufville
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