Telling the Future

Telling the Future

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49:20
Toby Shevlane on Building AI Forecasters
"In a few months time it’s my belief that it will no longer be clear that systems like Mantic are below the performance of the human pros"
Nov 13 • 
Robert de Neufville
American Totalitarianism
Demagogues rise when the social order breaks down
Oct 29 • 
Robert de Neufville
We Must Not Go Down This Road
Violence multiplies violence
Oct 2 • 
Robert de Neufville
Josh Rosenberg on Forecasting Research
"In the next year to eight years, the extrapolated trend would suggest that AIs will catch up to superforecasters"
Sep 24 • 
Robert de Neufville
41:55
Through AI, Darkly
We taught it language, now it knows how to curse
Aug 29 • 
Robert de Neufville
Reflections on Surviving Strokes
I never realized how much I love walking
Aug 14 • 
Robert de Neufville
Language Models Still Can't Forecast
All my forecasts are hand produced by humans
Jul 31 • 
Robert de Neufville
Postcard from Québec
Back soon
Jul 7 • 
Robert de Neufville
Telling the Future
Telling the Future
On predicting the future
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Telling the Future

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